Bitcoin Umbrella Opens as XRP Clears Key Level — All Eyes on Fed, Tech Earnings & Trump-Xi Summit
Cryptocurrency markets are showing renewed life this week, with the flagship token Bitcoin edging higher and XRP — the payments-oriented token — breaking above its 200-day moving average, just as a cascade of major macro and geopolitical events threatens to inject fresh volatility.
Crypto’s technical signal and broader backdrop
Bitcoin has climbed roughly 1.7 % in the past 24 hours, trading near US $113,600 and extending a three-day winning streak. Crucially, the cryptocurrency’s 200-day simple moving average (SMA) is hovering around US $108,800 — a barrier that appeared to exhaust sellers, suggesting momentum could be building.
Meanwhile XRP has notably cleared its own 200-day MA at about US $2.60. Analysts view that as an early bullish signal, though caution remains given near-term supply zones could cap a sustained breakout.
From a thematic standpoint, the backdrop is compelling. Markets are gearing up for the Federal Reserve (Fed) to deliver a rate cut, while global central banks, corporate tech earnings and a high-stakes US-China summit loom large. These layers of risk and opportunity are combining to position cryptocurrencies as a quasi “risk-on” asset in this phase.
Why the Fed cut matters
The Fed is widely expected to reduce its key policy interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.0 % at Wednesday’s meeting — which, if delivered, would bring easing since last year to roughly 150 bps. The more interesting question, however, lies beyond the formal decision: what will Chair Jerome Powell say during the press conference about the central bank’s balance sheet runoff (quantitative tightening, or QT) and future policy path?
One analyst note: the Fed’s reserves in the banking system recently fell below US $3 trillion — a level some consider a sign of tight liquidity. If Powell signals the Fed is nearing the end of QT (or could return to some form of balance sheet expansion), that could lift liquidity and risk appetite — a tailwind for digital assets.
On the flip side, weak comments about labour markets, or hawkish hints on future inflation, could spook markets — triggering a risk-off move that tends to hurt crypto alongside equities. For now, however, the base case of a dovish tilt is underpinning the modest crypto gains.
Tech earnings and the “Mag 7” relevance
In the corporate arena, the spotlight turns to the so-called “Mag 7” tech giants — companies like Microsoft, Apple, Amazon.com, Meta Platforms and Alphabet Inc. — whose upcoming earnings will offer a barometer of AI infrastructure demand, cloud spending, and broader growth momentum.
Why does this matter for crypto? Two threads link them: first, elevated tech/AI spending tends to boost risk assets broadly — of which crypto is a part. Second, large institutional flows into risk assets could spill into alternative assets like digital tokens. If the earnings disappoint (i.e., growth slowing) the reverse could happen: risk appetite could fade and crypto could lose steam.
Thus, this week’s corporate set-up adds another dimension to the crypto price action.
The Trump-Xi summit: trade winds or headwinds?
Geopolitics also sets the stage. A meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping on the margins of the APEC Summit in South Korea is scheduled for Thursday, with U.S.–China trade tensions back in focus.
Both sides have issued optimistic sound-bites ahead of the summit, raising hopes of a truce and possible trade deal. For markets, such a diplomatic thaw could boost investor confidence and risk assets. Conversely, a breakdown or vague outcome could spook sentiment — favouring safe-haven flows and pressuring crypto.
Given the binary nature of the summit outcome and its proximity to other key events this week, crypto markets may see out sized moves driven by headline risk rather than fundamentals.